The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, December 2023 Update
Down from 2022 highs: San Francisco -12%, Seattle -11%, Portland -6%; Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas -5%; Dallas -4%, San Diego -2%, Los Angeles -1%. But new highs in 8 metros.
Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “October” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in August, September, and October. That’s the time frame here. It uses the “sales-pairs method,” comparing the sales price of the same house over time, thereby eliminating the issues associated with median prices and average prices (see “Methodology” toward the end of the article). But it lags.
The story here is about the individual metros of the 20 metros covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index where home prices soared to ridiculous levels, multiplying by factors of three and four since 2000.
The “most splendid Housing bubbles,” we started calling them since about 2017 to track their astounding surge – and what their fate is now.
Nine of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller Index were below their peaks in mid-2022. Nine metros had month-to-month declines (Seattle, Denver, Tampa, Washington DC, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, Dallas, and Minneapolis). And 8 of the 20 metros set new highs.
Prices below their 2022 peaks in 9 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (% from their respective peak, Case-Shiller month of peak):
- San Francisco Bay Area: -11.7% (May 2022)
- Seattle: -10.9% (May 2022)
- Portland: -5.8% (May 2022)
- Las Vegas: -5.3% (July 2022)
- Denver: -5.2% (May 2022)
- Phoenix: -5.1% (June 2022)
- Dallas: -4.4% (June 2022)
- San Diego: -2.1% (May 2022)
- Los Angeles: -0.8% (May 2022)
Prices set new highs in 8 of the 20 metros in the index (% year-over-year):
- New York metro: +7.1%
- Detroit: +8.1%
- Chicago: +6.9%
- Boston: +6.6%
- Miami: +6.7%
- Cleveland: +6.4%
- Charlotte: +6.0%
- Atlanta: +5.3%…..
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