Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
You have to hand it to the Left. They are a clever bunch. They take your tax dollars and use them to promote abortion, DEI in the military, and reverse discrimination. They take the tuition money you saved to educate your children or your tax dollars, and then they use it to turn your child’s […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
When commenting on the stock market, it is difficult to establish continuity unless previous articles are referenced. We are sorry for that because it also requires the reader to go back to pick up the pieces of the argument. Our point of reference is the last commentary written on August 3, 2023, wherein we suggested […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The automobile is one of the devices that truly changed America and the world. Invented originally in Germany, it found its greatest expression and success in America. In the early years, car technology competed with each other based on gasoline or kerosene power, diesel, electric, and even steam. The internal combustion engine using gasoline prevailed. […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
US government bonds are considered by the investment community to be “risk-free.” They are low risk to be sure, given the ability of the US government to both tax and print money, but risk-free with our current fiscal trajectory seems a stretch. So, Fitch, the bond rating agency called it as they saw it: the […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
What a run it has been! The S&P is up better than 20% and the tech-laden NASDAQ is up better than 45% year to data. Label it as either a new bull market or a bear market rally, it has been strong. The stock market seems poised to challenge old highs based on good technical […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
We published an interesting interview with Tom Lewis, the generous benefactor who had to withdraw his significant contributions to ASU because of militant left-wing bias among its faculty. In that interview, he has high praise for Michael Crow, although he admits he does not think Michael Crow knows what is going on regarding academic freedom […]
Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes
From seemingly out of the blue, an independent film about child sex trafficking has eclipsed some heavyweight Hollywood productions for the summer box office draw. In actuality, we learn the film was produced some five years ago and it took all this time and struggle to get it to the big screen. Why such a […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Over the 4th of July weekend, you likely became aware of the political statements from Ben and Jerry’s, the ice cream maker owned by the international conglomerate, Unilever. Exactly why we should believe the utterings of a company that clogs people’s veins with fat and inflames their system with sugar, is not the point. The […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Since our last report the Federal Reserve has met, left interest rates unchanged, but consequently has made a lot of noise that at least two more interest rate hikes will be forthcoming. Given tight labor conditions and the persistence of inflation, one wonders why they hesitated, then thought differently, and have subsequently tried to make […]
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
We live in a time when our Founding is either taken for granted (it’s a day to picnic) or is degraded altogether. Â Now popular is the notion that the Founding was in 1619 and the nation was born in the sin of slavery. Â That is all that is important about our history, our failings. Â That […]
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
We are all familiar with July 4, 1776, but did you know American Independence might have been quite different were it not for events on July 4, 1754? It was on that date that a 21-year-old Colonel in the Virginia Militia led his men on a retreat out of Fort Necessity after tangling with a […]
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Twenty states now ban genital mutilation or what progressives call “gender-affirming care” for minors with gender dysphoria. In most cases, it has been achieved against almost universal support by the Democrat Party for invasive surgery and puberty-blocking drugs. Texas is the latest and largest state to pass such legislation banning such practices. Penalties vary by […]
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
Those old enough might remember in the early days of the sexual revolution, the common refrain was to “get the government out of the bedroom”. The thought was that the police powers of the state had no business involving themselves in the private sexual practices of consenting adults. This principle was applied first to heterosexual […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Years ago, a colleague in money management displayed a book in his office that he authored called “Everything I Know About the Stock Market.” As I recall, it was a hefty book, attractively bound with a feel of quality. However, after opening up the tome, every page was blank. For financial types, this was quite […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
As we pointed out not long ago, we think we may be at “peak wokeness.” Corporations are really beginning to get stung. If you want to become a soldier in the culture wars, you must expect to take some incoming fire. But for years, Conservatives sat on their weapons too confused to fire back. Corporations […]
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
Recently we felt it necessary (Trump Is Out of Line) to slap down President Trump for his attacks on Ron DeSantis in relation to Medicare and Social Security. We contended that no serious effort at controlling the deficit can be undertaken with the reform of “entitlement” programs. The reason: that is where the overwhelming bulk […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
It might seem the question posed is easy to answer. Of course, we want to win you will say. Well, maybe not. Like the Left in this country, people on our side of the argument perform their own version of “virtue signaling.” That term is often used by those of us on the center-right side […]
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Wall Street is full of lingo and its own aphorisms. One of the more relevant right now is the admonition to “sell in May and go away.” The suggestion is, if you are shorter term in your market view, the market has a “seasonal” pattern of weakness that begins in May and typically follows through […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
As an observer of both the social scene and politics, it is interesting to see the reaction of Conservative Americans to two recent events. One is the purported firing of Tucker Carlson from Fox News and the other was the transgender pandering marketing effort by Bud Light. Related to the second, we could also add […]
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
There is little doubt today that what the Federal Reserve decides to do with both interest rates and its massive balance sheet is perhaps the most important variable moving markets. The next two FED meetings loom as particularly important. The key dates will be May 3rd-4th and June 14th-15th. To be sure, corporate earnings, retail […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
You probably have noticed television ads attacking Ron DeSantis from groups supporting Donald Trump. One of these ads “You don’t know Ron DeSantis” goes after the Florida Governor for voting for changes in Social Security and Medicare while DeSantis served in Congress. It is certainly fine with us if politicians point out their differences with […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
In early January 2021, we authored a brief article on gold. In that article, we suggested some reasons we thought would be positive for the price of gold. Since it has now been more than two years, it may be worth revisiting the subject and updating readers of The Prickly Pear on the current status of […]
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Now it was not a great quarter, but considering the banking failures and interest rate hikes, equities were remarkably resilient. The gain of 7% or so in the broad market average was welcome. The tech-laden NASDAQ was up 17%. Recall the broad average was down 19% last year. Gold was up about 9% and bonds […]
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
Over the past few weeks, we have had the second and third-largest bank failures in our history. As this crisis unfolds, we are repeatedly told by officials that it is localized to these particular banks, that the banking system is sound, and there is not a systemic risk to those with money on deposit in […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
We think a story of major importance has been buried by the news of bank runs in the US. While not disputing the importance of the bank run stories (we’ve written on this ourselves), the implications of China brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran are very important. The two warring nations have achieved […]
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Editors’ Note: On Friday, March 10, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, the second largest bank failure in US history. There is common wisdom that the FED keeps raising rates “until something breaks.” There is likely no bigger single market intervention than the manipulation of interest rates. Along with the meltdown in cryptocurrencies, their banks, and exchanges, […]
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Here at The Prickly Pear, we were quite skeptical of the advice the US government was putting out about how to deal with Covid. We particularly took the position that medical considerations could not be viewed in isolation from other factors such as the economy, personal liberty, and the education and welfare of children. The […]
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Is China helping Russia in its invasion of Ukraine? If so, what does that mean for the conflict? Secretary of State Blinken suggested that China is supplying Russia with “non-lethal” aid during a recent trip to Turkey. This statement came just before a “secret” trip to Ukraine by President Biden, which was only a secret […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Outside of the purchase of a home, the purchase of an automobile or two is likely the largest purchase a consumer makes. Given it is your money at stake, the reliability of the transportation, the economy to operate, and the safety of your family, it seemed reasonable just a few years ago that this decision […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
We have just gone through another FED meeting and rate hike cycle. The FED delivered what was widely expected, another one-quarter of a percent interest rate increase. And as usual, the action of the FED was heavily scrutinized as is the after-announcement presser and then comments from various FED Presidents. A number of regional FED […]
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Various financial markets will be focused this week on the February 1st, meeting of the Federal Reserve Board. This comes on the heels of an unusual number of other central banks conducting meetings. The meeting itself and the commentary come at a critical inflection point for the stock market. The markets since the turn of the year […]
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Editors’ Note: The Prickly Pear presents two opposing opinions and sides about the outcome of the 2022 Arizona Governor’s race. It is the belief of this publication that multiple factors were at play in the outcome of the election. The voters should always determine the candidates in their respective party via the primary process and […]
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The initial sparring and positioning over the debt limit have begun and not surprisingly, the Democrats are pulling out their past winning arguments that have kept any of the huge entitlement programs off limit to any kind of reform. The past arguments can be summarized as “pushing Granny off the cliff”, a theme derived from […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The budgetary crisis in the US has reached a critical phase. The debt ceiling fight about to unfold will simply be the latest phase. Experts say it is irresponsible to “play a game of chicken” with the debt ceiling. In the past, this means, Congress should increase the debt limit without resistance. The Democrat Congress has […]
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Price is largely determined by the interaction of supply and demand and the cost of the factors of production. In the case of eggs, it is primarily a drop in the supply of eggs, while demand has been fairly constant. However, there also has been a rise in the cost of the factors of production […]
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Editors Note: Janet Yellen, US Secretary of the Treasury said late last week that the US would be out of money by January 19th, and would begin to take extraordinary measures to keep the government afloat until June. The problem is the previous Congress has already approved massive spending but has to go back to […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Editors’ Note: Debate over the budget and deficit spending has been a staple of American political debate since they became chronic with Lyndon Johnson and the Great Society. Too bad it has in recent years just become background noise for both political parties because the stakes for America are very high. However, as this article […]
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In line with our promise to provide more guidance and opinions on personal finance, the following is offered as our take on what 2023 will likely provide for investors. We hope to provide a little theory to develop your thinking and some actionable ideas. Keep in mind this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Always […]
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Back on December 1, 2022, The Prickly Pear was one of the first publications to note that the very narrow Republican victory in the House gave significant leverage to those who oppose Kevin McCarthy as Speaker and those that want significant rule changes in the House. We noted this was a historic rarity that could […]
Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes
Most of us look at the end of the year, reflect on the past, and look into the future. Many of us have resolutions to do things better in the coming year. At The Prickly Pear, we look at the economic horizon and we see storm clouds. That does not bode well for a society […]
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Banks, brokerage houses, and financial pundits are all issuing their post-mortem reflections on 2022 and looking into the new year. They will attempt to tell us what is likely for stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and crypto for the coming year. We will make our own attempt in due time, but we admire the effort […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Dennis Prager is always a source of wisdom. One of his more pithy axioms is “the bigger the government, the smaller the citizen.” We would like to add a corollary. The bigger the government the smaller the space in which democracy can function. During much of this year, we have been bombarded by Democrats about the […]
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The story of Kennewick Man is a tale that branches into anthropology, archeology, history, politics, DNA testing, our legal system, and the frustrations of simply attempting to derive a scientific truth while in conflict with bureaucracy. Kennewick Man was discovered in 1996 quite by accident by two college students in south-central Washington state not far […]
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Most readers are likely familiar with discussions concerning Quantitative Easing. This was pioneered by Japan’s central bank and modified and emulated by many central banks around the world. Its adoption by US authorities was vital as the Federal Reserve acts as the defacto central bank, of central banks. While arcane, it basically is a policy of […]
Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes
It is doubtful a serious student of geopolitics and Chinese history could dispute that China is a rising power. Nor can any serious analyst doubt that China will be at best a rival, at worst, a serious threat to the US. Especially after the recent consolidation of power by Chairman Xi, his public statements, the […]
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Just as the Democrats felt comfortable with complete control of the Senate, Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema announced she would become an “independent ” and not caucus with either party [she has since announced she will caucus with the Democrat party]. Her position she made clear in a glossy youtube release below. While we admire […]
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No doubt you are aware of the kerfuffle going on about Kanye West, or the rapper known as Ye, bringing an antisemitic friend, one Nick Fuentes, to dinner at Mara-a- Lago. Even more dramatic, was Ye’s own antisemitic outbursts in the media subsequent to the controversial dinner. The more important item at work here is […]
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An intense internal debate is underway within the Republican Party about the future role of Donald Trump. The outcome of this debate will likely determine the direction the party will go in and as such, will directly affect the prospects for either victory or defeat. From the outset, it is worth noting most of the […]
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Stocks and bonds have had a rough year in 2022. Readers might remember, we forecast this as a “risk off” year quite some time ago, meaning a high probability of a dual bear market in both stocks and bonds. From the beginning of the year, stocks had lost about 26%, putting us officially into “bear” […]
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Since the US birthed the entrance of China into the World Trade Organization in 1998 under Bill Clinton, the two nations have formed an unstable alliance of sorts. The thinking of Western elites has been that if China did well, they would become more like the West. They would become integrated into the global economy, […]