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It Gets Ugly: Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunged at Fastest Pace since 1982. It’s “Permanent” not “Temporary,” Won’t Bounce Back

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May, after having jumped 0.8% in April, and 0.6% in March – all three the steepest month-to-month jumps since 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. For the three months combined, CPI has jumped by 2.0%, or by an “annualized” pace of 8.1%. This current three-month pace of […]

The Weird Phenomenon of “Labor Shortages” as Millions of People Who Could Work Are Not Working

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

A sign of how messed up the moving parts of the economy have become, amid massive excesses and distortions connected by malfunctioning gearing. In an interview a few days ago that aired locally, the owner of an Italian restaurant in San Francisco – the restaurant scene is now vibrant in a different way than before […]

Buyers’ Strike? Amid Crazy Spiking Prices, Home Sales Sag for 3rd Month, Pent-Up Sellers Get Ready, New Listings & Inventories Rise

Estimated Reading Time: < 1 minute

This is a world of unprecedented Fed intervention, government stimulus, inflation that has turned red-hot this year amid a weird phenomenon of companies complaining about a labor shortage, while nearly 10 million people are deemed “unemployed” and 16 million people are claiming some sort of unemployment insurance. As 2.1 million mortgages are still in forbearance […]

Consumers Expect Surging Inflation to Crush the Purchasing Power of their Labor: Fed’s Survey

Estimated Reading Time: < 1 minute

Consumers are picking up on the rise of inflation, and the Fed, which has been trying to heat up inflation, is pleased. The Fed watches “inflation expectations” carefully. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting mention “inflation expectations” 12 times. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for April, released today, showed that median inflation expectations […]

Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories

Estimated Reading Time: < 1 minute

Even the Fed’s repressed inflation measure without food and energy rose 2.3% annual rate in Q1. The US economy, as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP, grew by 1.6% in the first quarter from Q4 2020, according to the advance estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning. If you read in the headline that it grew by […]

Stock Market Leverage in La-La Land, Rises to Historic WTF High

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Archegos shows how leverage is the great accelerator of stock prices on the way up, and on the way down. One of its bets, ViacomCBS, after skyrocketing, collapsed by 60%. Vast, unreported, and at the time unknown amounts of leverage blew up Archegos Capital Management, dishing out enormous losses to its investors, the banks that brokered […]

Producer Prices Blow Out

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

And companies have been reporting that they’re able to pass on those surging costs. So here we go with inflation. Inflation that producers are experiencing is now blowing out. The surging input costs and the ability to pass on those higher input costs that have been reported by company executives as part of the services PMIs [Purchase […]

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: “House-Price Inflation” in all its Glory. March Update

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Dollar’s Purchasing Power Swoons, but CPI ignores house price inflation. House prices rose by 11.2% from a year ago, the biggest increase since the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in 2006, according to today’s National Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January. The index is a good measure of “house-price inflation” because it’s based on the “sales pairs” […]

FHA Mortgage Delinquencies Hit 17.5%. In 30 Metros, over 20%: On the Other Side of a Red-Hot Housing Market

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Everything is on ice. But when forbearance ends, forced sellers or lenders will put millions of these homes on the market. On the other side of the red-hot housing market, a historic delinquency problem has been fermenting since last spring, largely put on ice and on hold by forbearance programs, waiting to be dealt with. […]