In a recent poll, Democrat Ruben Gallego will lead the senate race against a split GOP voter base.
Despite Democrats making up only 31% of the voter base in O.H. Predictive Insight’s pool of voters, Gallego is at a +5 advantage if both Doug Ducey and Kyrsten Sinema run for the Senate. In the current breakdown, Gallego represents 32% of the vote, Ducey at 27%, undecided at 23% and Sinema at only 17%.
The poll was conducted online among a group of 1,000 voters, with a +/- 3.1% margin of error. Thirty-five percent identified as Republican, 31% as Democrats and 34% as Independent.
“What I take away from this data is that the two key factors in this Senate race will be the ‘style’ of Republican nominated to run and whether Sinema is also on the ballot,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “But, there’s a long time between now and election day, which leaves plenty of opportunity for something to happen that can shift the dynamics of this race.”
OHPI also conducted surveys with other Republican options, such as Blake Masters and Kari Lake. In all voting samples, irrespective of Republican or independent candidate, current polling shows Gallego at a majority. However, the Democratic candidate does not lead by a margin of 50% in any of the polls, still giving the GOP a slight advantage.
The recently independent Arizona senator has yet to announce a 2024 campaign. Until that is determined, it will be difficult to produce more accurate polls.
“The best-case scenario for Trump-style Republicans is having Sinema on the ticket,” the report reads. “For Ducey-style Republicans, their best bet is Sinema not running.”
As we move through 2023 and into the next election cycle, The Prickly Pear will resume Take Action recommendations and information.