Our last market commentary noted that the stock market was very oversold, both in momentum and particularly in sentiment. As we moved to the end of October, we entered a period where “seasonal” strength is typical. The combination of “oversold” and seasonal strength prodded us to become more bullish on the market, at least for […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/new-york-city-wall-street-bull.webp650900Neland Nobelhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngNeland Nobel2023-11-24 00:32:512023-11-25 08:09:15Will Seasonal Strength Become a New Bull Market?
A Potemkin village is a construction—literal or figurative—designed to deceive people into believing a situation is better than it is. The term arose from a fake portable village reportedly built by Russian military leader Grigory Potemkin, former lover of Empress Catherine II, solely to impress her while she traveled to Crimea in 1787. The Biden […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/umbrella.jpg8071280Carrie Sheffieldhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngCarrie Sheffield2023-11-21 00:30:312023-11-21 08:36:33U.S. Job Market Growth Inflated By Government Hiring, Not Real Value Creation
The goals of President Joe Biden’s administration are lofty: among them, nationwide vehicle electrification within 20 years. To reach that goal, the administration has recently proposed new fuel economy regulations that will help ensure that 67% of new passenger cars sold are electric vehicles by 2032. The problem is that this green dream is physically impossible to achieve […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/iStock-1292252309-scaled.jpg17092560Brent Bennett, Ph.D., The Honorable Jason Isaachttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngBrent Bennett, Ph.D., The Honorable Jason Isaac2023-11-19 00:28:592023-11-18 07:28:55The True Cost of EVs Is More Than The Sticker Price
Several news stories caught attention in the last few days. One was that Moody, the bond rating agency, joined Standard and Poor’s and Fitch, in downgrading the bond rating of US government debt. It would seem the issuer of the reserve currency of the world, and the world’s largest economy no longer has a AAA […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/iStock-664340822.jpg14142121Neland Nobelhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngNeland Nobel2023-11-17 00:32:272023-11-17 14:30:07The Great Inflation Head Fake
Sometime during the mid-afternoon of July 17, 1967, a band of six mountaineers set off from Camp VII at 17,900 feet on Mount McKinley in their quest to reach the summit. Four others of their party had summited the mountain two days earlier after an eight-hour climb from Camp VII with nearly perfect weather. The […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/Mt._McKinley_-_a_Closeup.jpg13662048Mark Wallacehttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngMark Wallace2023-11-15 00:30:562023-11-13 06:20:14Commercial Real Estate Debt: Calm Before the Storm or the Pause That Refreshes?
Higher for how much longer? “The extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate… The FOMC voted unanimously to keep its five policy rates unchanged today, with the top of its policy rates at 5.50%, as had been broadly messaged in recent weeks in speeches by Fed governors. It was the second meeting in a […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/fed.jpg339508Wolf Richterhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngWolf Richter2023-11-07 00:26:482023-11-06 06:46:25Another “Hawkish Hold” with Tightening Bias: Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Rate Hike Still on the Table. QT Continues
The much-awaited and hoped-for slowdown in the second half turned into a drunken party in Q3. This was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reaction this morning when he saw the Q3 GDP report, as captured by cartoonist Marco Ricolli for WOLF STREET: In Q3, all our drunken sailors were at it together in one huge party – consumers, […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/money-3.jpg8541280Wolf Richterhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngWolf Richter2023-11-06 00:30:052023-11-04 07:10:49Our Drunken Sailors – Consumers, Governments, Businesses – Have Blast, GDP Spikes in Q3, Powell Seen Tearing out his Hair
For those who make their living on Capitol Hill and at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the real horror this Halloween won’t be the kids in their Halloween costumes or the scary movies in the cinema — it will be (and is) the return of the Bond Market Vigilantes. Simply put, the Bond Market Vigilantes are a […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/dollarinhalf-scaled.jpg17072560Mark Wallacehttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngMark Wallace2023-10-31 00:30:362023-10-30 14:44:36Halloween Horror: The Return of the Bond Market Vigilantes
As reported in the past few missives on the subject, stocks, and bonds have been having a generally tough time. We warned that this was going to happen, and we were lucky enough to get the call right. Weakness continued through the month of October and just might extend into the first weeks or so […]
Americans’ purchasing power in the real estate market has been cut in half in less than three years as home prices and mortgage rates rise, pricing average Americans out of the market, according to NBC News. Housing affordability has been cut in half in less than three years since August 2023, when a median-income household […]
https://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/housing-inflation-scaled.jpg17092560Will Kesslerhttps://pricklypear.news/wp-content/uploads/logo_2023.pngWill Kessler2023-10-25 00:28:412023-10-24 07:40:04Housing Market Half As Affordable Than Just Three Years Ago
Will Seasonal Strength Become a New Bull Market?
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance/by Neland NobelOur last market commentary noted that the stock market was very oversold, both in momentum and particularly in sentiment. As we moved to the end of October, we entered a period where “seasonal” strength is typical. The combination of “oversold” and seasonal strength prodded us to become more bullish on the market, at least for […]
U.S. Job Market Growth Inflated By Government Hiring, Not Real Value Creation
/in Culture War, Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance, Politics/by Carrie SheffieldA Potemkin village is a construction—literal or figurative—designed to deceive people into believing a situation is better than it is. The term arose from a fake portable village reportedly built by Russian military leader Grigory Potemkin, former lover of Empress Catherine II, solely to impress her while she traveled to Crimea in 1787. The Biden […]
The True Cost of EVs Is More Than The Sticker Price
/in Culture War, Economy, Environment, Featured, Latest News, Liberty, Personal Finance, Politics/by Brent Bennett, Ph.D., The Honorable Jason IsaacThe goals of President Joe Biden’s administration are lofty: among them, nationwide vehicle electrification within 20 years. To reach that goal, the administration has recently proposed new fuel economy regulations that will help ensure that 67% of new passenger cars sold are electric vehicles by 2032. The problem is that this green dream is physically impossible to achieve […]
The Great Inflation Head Fake
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance, Politics/by Neland NobelSeveral news stories caught attention in the last few days. One was that Moody, the bond rating agency, joined Standard and Poor’s and Fitch, in downgrading the bond rating of US government debt. It would seem the issuer of the reserve currency of the world, and the world’s largest economy no longer has a AAA […]
Commercial Real Estate Debt: Calm Before the Storm or the Pause That Refreshes?
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Liberty, Personal Finance, Politics/by Mark WallaceSometime during the mid-afternoon of July 17, 1967, a band of six mountaineers set off from Camp VII at 17,900 feet on Mount McKinley in their quest to reach the summit. Four others of their party had summited the mountain two days earlier after an eight-hour climb from Camp VII with nearly perfect weather. The […]
Another “Hawkish Hold” with Tightening Bias: Fed Keeps Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, Rate Hike Still on the Table. QT Continues
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance, Politics/by Wolf RichterHigher for how much longer? “The extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate… The FOMC voted unanimously to keep its five policy rates unchanged today, with the top of its policy rates at 5.50%, as had been broadly messaged in recent weeks in speeches by Fed governors. It was the second meeting in a […]
Our Drunken Sailors – Consumers, Governments, Businesses – Have Blast, GDP Spikes in Q3, Powell Seen Tearing out his Hair
/in Economy, Personal Finance, Politics/by Wolf RichterThe much-awaited and hoped-for slowdown in the second half turned into a drunken party in Q3. This was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reaction this morning when he saw the Q3 GDP report, as captured by cartoonist Marco Ricolli for WOLF STREET: In Q3, all our drunken sailors were at it together in one huge party – consumers, […]
Halloween Horror: The Return of the Bond Market Vigilantes
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance, Politics/by Mark WallaceFor those who make their living on Capitol Hill and at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the real horror this Halloween won’t be the kids in their Halloween costumes or the scary movies in the cinema — it will be (and is) the return of the Bond Market Vigilantes. Simply put, the Bond Market Vigilantes are a […]
Stocks Look for Seasonal Strength
/in Economy, Education, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance/by Neland NobelAs reported in the past few missives on the subject, stocks, and bonds have been having a generally tough time. We warned that this was going to happen, and we were lucky enough to get the call right. Weakness continued through the month of October and just might extend into the first weeks or so […]
Housing Market Half As Affordable Than Just Three Years Ago
/in Economy, Featured, Latest News, Personal Finance, Politics/by Will KesslerAmericans’ purchasing power in the real estate market has been cut in half in less than three years as home prices and mortgage rates rise, pricing average Americans out of the market, according to NBC News. Housing affordability has been cut in half in less than three years since August 2023, when a median-income household […]