Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine: The Broader Meaning
During the early morning hours of Thursday (local time), Russia began its long-threatened and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the first instance of war between two sovereign nations in Europe since the end of the Second World War. Vladimir Putin’s order to initiate a “special military operation” against Ukraine has finally, for those who had any remaining doubts, revealed Putin for what he is: a thug. A product of the KGB who regards the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of modern history, Putin is dedicated to the reconstruction of the Russian Empire, with or without the consent of its former subjects, with himself as czar.
Ukraine isn’t our war, at least not yet. But American soldiers entered the continent of Europe twice during the 20th Century to fight wars we didn’t think were ours at first. And unlike at the beginning of the First and Second World Wars, U.S. forces are already in Europe and committed to NATO and the defense of NATO’s borders. Russia’s border with NATO now extends from the Arctic to the Eastern Mediterranean; miscalculation by either side along this immense frontier could have disastrous consequences.
For some time now, the United States has been locked in great power competition with Russia and China, both of which seek to displace the U.S. as the preeminent world power and establish an international order based on authoritarian rule. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates what that competition looks like when our adversaries do not respect us and do not believe our leaders pose a credible challenge to their ambitions.
President Biden’s initial response to Putin’s build-up on the borders of Ukraine was an exercise in political theater. Americans watched a president who is apparently unable or unwilling to secure his own country’s borders dispatch troops to Europe to ensure the integrity of NATO borders. At the same time, while ensuring the Ukrainians of U.S support, the president simultaneously defeated any potential deterrent effect when he clearly announced early-on that U.S. troops would not fight in Ukraine, removed U.S. military trainers from the country, and evacuated the U.S. embassy. Dispatching the Vice President to a European security conference in Munich was simply a gesture devoid of content.
Putin knew that President Biden – given the debacle of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, a flagging economy, and abysmal polling numbers – needed a “victory moment” in Ukraine. Putin could smell weakness and indecision, and he was not impressed. (Just as he wasn’t impressed by the Obama/Biden Administration when he annexed Crimea.)
Thursday afternoon (Washington, DC time) President Biden announced the imposition of new economic sanctions and reportedly alerted an additional seven thousand soldiers to further reinforce U.S. forces in Germany. Europe and most of the rest of the world are at least rhetorically outraged at Putin’s behavior and supportive of President Biden’s actions. But outrage is hard to sustain; what happens when the outrage wears off?
While Ukraine isn’t our fight, it does have a broader meaning for the future security of the U.S. and its allies.
First, Americans must recognize that Ukraine represents the “new normal,” at least while Vladimir Putin still exercises power in Russia. Putin has a vision for Russia combined with a sense of strategic patience – he knows what he wants to achieve and he acts decisively when he believes his adversaries are weak.
Second, the United States needs a long-term and sustainable Russian strategy. An announced and enduring strategy of containment worked well against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Like his Soviet predecessors, Putin needs to be contained in his ambitions. Vladimir Putin is clearly a threat to peace. While some may dismiss Russia as noting more than a giant gas station, it’s a gas station with formidable conventional military forces and the world’s largest nuclear weapons stockpile – the fact of which Putin likes to regularly remind us.
Likewise, European leaders need to make some hard choices concerning their security environment. Putin knows NATO only works when the U.S. does the heavy lifting. Events in the Ukraine should be an unmistakable signal that the time has come for Europeans to take on greater responsibility for their own defense. The days are long gone when the United States could or should be expected to single handedly ensure the security of Europe.
Russia is only one part of a complex security challenge facing U.S. leaders. China remains the greatest long-term existential threat to U.S. security. While the Russian – Chinese strategic relationship is largely a marriage of convenience, such marriages still bring advantages for both partners. China is watching closely to gauge how the U.S. and it allies respond to events in Ukraine and how well and how long they hold together on sanctions. China will interpret weakness in Europe as opportunity in Asia and the Pacific.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine should be a wakeup call to what used to be referred to as the Free World. Defending that world against the predatory designs of Russia and China isn’t about “America First;” in the long run, it is about “America at All.”
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The author is a retired U.S. Army officer and a retired senior civilian employee of the U.S. Department of Defense. He is a regular contributor to The Prickly Pear on national security issues.