The Painful Reality of Trump the Candidate
Trump’s pathway to winning the general election in 2024 looks almost impossible
Everyone fighting to save America from the destruction of the Democratic Left needs to face up to some realities. Realities that will be hard to swallow. They are for me, after voting for President Trump twice and believing, as I do, that the 2020 election was at least rigged, and possibly stolen.
But that was then. Whatever happened—and considering how much has been destroyed now by statute, we will never know—Joe Biden is catastrophically doddering around the White House. If the nation has any chance at all of saving or recapturing the fundamentals and traditions that made America great in the first place, we can not endure another term of any Democrat in the White House.
And so a cold, steely-eyed examination of this moment is essential.
There are a multitude of issues that will play into the 2024 results, including the likelihood of a recession, fraying relations around the world, maybe another pandemic that would allow Biden or Kamala Harris to stay in the basement while the media does all their campaigning for them; and other surprises not yet imagined. But let’s just take the bottom line that matters: Winning a majority of the Electoral College votes. In the end, this is the only issue that counts, and it is kind of ugly.
First, the only way a Trump candidacy makes sense is if indeed the 2020 election was stolen, which means that illegal actions were taken in violation of state laws in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan—all states that flipped from 2016 to 2020 but were close and were known to have shenanigans in 2020. (When I say “rigged,” I mean the four-year, un-American horror show from the leftist-Democrat-media establishment culminating in suppression of Hunter Biden’s laptop—the rigging that occurred before ballots were cast and votes counted.)
If Trump honestly lost in 2020, fair and square at the ballot box, then there is no argument for him being the nominee again.
So for our sober, unemotional analysis, let’s operate on the assumption that 2020 was stolen, and also assume based on all precedents that election results must be very close in a state for Democratic cheating to work, and then proceed with our dispassionate analysis.
Each one of those states is in either the same position it was in 2020, or has shifted to Democrats. Arizona had a Republican governor and attorney general. It now has a Democratic governor and attorney general. If it were truly stolen in 2020 under the noses of Republicans, why would anyone believe it would not be more easily stolen again in 2024 under the control of Democrats?
Pennsylvania has become more liberal in its power structure. Michigan is entirely Democrat now in Lansing. So Philadelphia and Detroit will remain cesspools of corruption that will provide however many votes are needed for a Democratic victory (if it is close) even if it means kicking out Republican observers and covering the windows in the vote-counting offices.
Wisconsin remains in Republican hands, but conservatives just lost the state Supreme Court, a possibly fatal blow against honest voting results in Milwaukee and Madison.
Georgia is the best possible case, as it has tightened its election laws some, although of course nothing like the media hysteria and idiotic move by Major League Baseball suggested. But the Republican governor and secretary of state were brutally criticized, mocked and ultimately alienated by Trump for 2020. It’s not likely they will go to the mat for him in a general election. Again, this is a dispassionate analysis and we’re dealing with human nature.
So realistically, if the very first objective is to eject Democrats from the White House, what path forward do supporters of Trump as the Republican nominee see? I would love to hear how this electoral mountain is overcome. Because those states need winning.
One reasonable retort is that these states will try to cheat regardless of the GOP nominee. Almost assuredly. But remember our assumption that the results must be close, within less than a percentage point, for Democrats to flip it. In all of the states we are talking about except Michigan, that appears to have been the case in 2020. Historically in elections where there has been evidence or suspicion of Democratic cheating in races, it’s often been much tighter than that.
The evidence in polling and in 2022 election results is that Trump remains popular among Republicans, particularly with the indictment farce playing out in New York, but he is less popular than ever among a critical mass of independent and swing voters.
We cannot forget what a historic disaster the 2022 midterms were for Republicans. There may be plenty of blame to go around, but certainly some of it falls to Donald Trump. For instance, the Senate and gubernatorial candidates he endorsed in the primaries in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all lost in the general election. Ditto for the Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate who lost by 11 points, although he was also massively outspent.
Trump has not been able to let go of 2020, and it is an electoral anchor around his neck and the necks of those he endorses in key, purple races. And even if he tries now to let it go, it will be brought up incessantly and he will have to keep answering questions about it because it has been his primary issue for two years.
So, again, with Trump as the nominee for the GOP, what is even a remotely conceivable path to his victory in 2024? He needs almost all of these states and a safe bet would be he could not win any with the exception of Georgia based on the leadership in those states now.
We just can’t wish for lollipops and rainbows because we believe Trump got hosed in 2020. Of course he did. We all did. That cannot matter now because it cannot be undone. And we can’t read columns like this, or worse just the headline, and jump to the comments section with “Enough RINOs! #Trump2024!” We’ve got to be smarter. A lot smarter. Or we lose our nation.
What matters is that Joe Biden or some other Democrat is not in the White House for six or 10 years. We don’t come back from that. Republicans have some good options, in part because Trump showed the way in 2016. But unless someone can prove the logic of this electoral map and election cheating analysis is wrong, Trump’s pathway to winning the general election in 2024 looks almost impossible.
This article was published at American Greatness and is reproduced with permission.
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